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If You Don't Backtest Your Strategy, You're Never Going To Make It!




In the business of trading, where sensational success stories and promises of instant riches are widespread, there's a noticeable omission: real evidence. Videos boast of 50K profits, tweets proclaim 10K a month with trading, yet where are the solid trade lists or the detailed backtesting results that prove these strategies actually work? Perhaps some got lucky with a trade, but luck is no strategy. Without substantial live trading history or rigorous backtesting to demonstrate a method's viability, it's all just noise. This is the hard, undeniable truth: If you don't learn how to backtest your strategy in a professional way, you're never going to make it.


The sad reality is that the vast majority of traders are not profitable, and what's more, many have no understanding of backtesting or have never implemented it in real life. This lack of knowledge is not just an oversight, it's a critical flaw in their approach to trading. With this article, we want to emphasize the fact that backtesting is essential for numerous reasons:


  1. Avoid Burning Your Money: Trying live strategies without strong data to back them up is like throwing your money into a fire. While future results are never guaranteed, backtesting provides at least some foundation upon which to base your decisions.

  2. Build Confidence in Entry and Exit Points: Knowing when to enter and exit a trade is pivotal in trading. Backtesting allows you to analyze historical data and build confidence in your strategy.

  3. Understand Performance Across Different Exchanges: The same strategy can perform completely differently across various exchanges. Some traders might overlook this, but these differences can have a profound impact on success or failure.

  4. Improve and Refine Your Strategy: Backtesting enables you to identify weaknesses and optimize your strategy. It helps in minimizing risk and maximizing profit by allowing you to make informed adjustments.

  5. Consistency and Discipline: Backtesting helps in developing a disciplined and consistent approach. You'll learn to stick to your strategy rather than making impulsive decisions based on emotions.

  6. Understanding Market Conditions: Backtesting can help you understand how your strategy performs under different market conditions. Whether it's a bullish, bearish, or sideways market, you'll have insights into how your strategy might respond.

Now that we understand the fundamental importance of backtesting, the question arises: How and where can we perform this crucial task? Simply replaying trades and manually observing outcomes is far from sufficient. You need a more robust, systematic, and data-driven approach. This is where tools like the Strategy Tester in TradingView come into play.



Strategy Tester in TradingView: A Professional Solution for Backtesting


TradingView's Strategy Tester is more than just a backtesting tool, it's a comprehensive solution that allows traders to dive deep into their strategies and understand how they might perform in various market conditions. Here's why it's an essential tool for any serious trader.


Minimum Requirement of 100 Closed Trades: TradingView emphasizes that at least 100 closed trades are necessary to evaluate a strategy accurately. This isn't an arbitrary number; it ensures that the evaluation is based on a substantial dataset, reducing the chance of misleading results.


Now, a provocative question for you, dear reader: As someone who may watch social media or follow traders, how many detailed trading records have you ever seen? Think about it. Those flashy videos and staggering profit claims are everywhere, but where are the meticulous records and consistent backtesting evidence? It's a curious discrepancy, don't you think?


Detailed Performance Reports: Beyond mere profit and loss, the Strategy Tester in TradingView provides key performance indicators (KPIs) that offer a comprehensive understanding of the strategy's historical performance. These include:


Win Rate: The percentage of trades that result in a profit.

Net Profit: The total monetary gain or loss.

Number of Trades: A comprehensive count of all trades executed.

Profit Factor: The ratio of gross profit to gross loss.

Maximum Drawdown: The largest loss from a peak to a trough during a specific time period.

These metrics provide a multifaceted perspective, allowing traders to evaluate the success, risk, and overall viability of a trading strategy.




These metrics are just a few examples, but there are many more available, providing a multifaceted perspective and allowing traders to evaluate the success, risk, and overall viability of a trading strategy.


Multiple Market, Timeframe, and Exchange Analysis: A strategy that works in one market or timeframe may falter in another, and even the same strategy can perform completely differently across various exchanges. The Strategy Tester allows you to backtest across these different scenarios, understanding the adaptability of your strategy.


Consistent and Repeatable Analysis for Large-Scale Evaluation: Manual replay might be beneficial for analyzing how you behave in individual trades, but when it comes to large-scale testing and repeating the process, it falls short. Manually replicating hundreds or even thousands of trades is not only time-consuming but prone to inconsistencies and human errors.


The Strategy Tester, on the other hand, offers a systematic and repeatable process that ensures consistent results across a vast number of trades. The advantages are multifaceted:

  • Efficiency: It allows for backtesting across large datasets, something impossible to achieve manually within a reasonable time frame.

  • Objectivity: By automating the process, it removes human biases and inconsistencies that can occur with manual replay.

  • Accuracy: With precise control over the parameters and the ability to replicate the testing conditions, the Strategy Tester ensures a more reliable and accurate assessment.

  • Scalability: Whether evaluating a strategy over 100 trades or 10,000, the Strategy Tester can handle it with the same efficiency, something that manual methods cannot offer.


By using professional tools like the Strategy Tester in TradingView, you're not only equipping yourself with essential data but also embracing a disciplined and methodical approach to trading. You're setting yourself apart from the majority who overlook this critical aspect, moving from guesswork to informed decision-making.


Remember, trading without backtesting is a gamble, and success in trading isn't about luck; it's about knowledge, preparation, and execution.



Turning Your Strategy into Code for Backtesting



Translating your trading strategy's entry points, stop losses, and exit orders into code can be a daunting task. It's a tricky process if you're not a programmer, but don't worry, we have your back. We've created two awesome indicators just for buying and selling. They come with a top-notch backtesting system, ready to use on TradingView's Strategy Tester. Even if coding sounds like a foreign language to you, these tools are designed to make the entire process smooth and user-friendly.

Easy Trade is a revolutionary trading tool that combines multiple technical indicators into a singular, user-friendly interface. This robust tool, designed by experienced traders, allows for comprehensive insights across various financial assets. Here's how Easy Trade can enhance your trading experience:

  • Buy and Sell Signals: Using a custom combination of indicators, it identifies optimal entry and exit points.

  • Reversal Candles and Support & Resistance Lines: Helps in pinpointing pivotal points of support or resistance.

  • Momentum Signals and Trend Strength Indicators: Allows for the assessment of trend direction and strength.

  • Backtesting System: Features an effective backtesting system to test your trading strategies against historical data.


In our Guidebook, you can find several backtested results across more than 20 assets and various timeframes, ranging from 5 minutes to 4 hours:


  • Selection of Moving Averages: Choose up to 6 moving averages, including Simple, Exponential, Hull, and Volume-Weighted.

  • Flexible Strategy Design: Create unique strategies by testing various crossover methods and more.

  • Strategy Tester Integration: View real-time results of any strategy in the Strategy Tester.

  • User Control and Flexibility: Unlike rigid moving average strategies, this tool caters to your imagination, allowing for virtually unlimited logical tests.


Conclusion


Backtesting is more than just a practice; it's a pathway to trading success. And with tools like Easy Trade and the Ultimate Moving Average Strategy Creator, this vital process is accessible to all. Dive into the world of trading with confidence, armed with the insights and precision that these tools provide. Don't just chase success stories. Create your own success story through rigorous analysis, sound strategy, and the right tools at your disposal.


However, remember that you don't have to use our specific tools. The essential point is to choose or develop tools that offer robust backtesting capabilities. Without this feature, a tool is essentially worthless in the critical task of strategy evaluation. Whether you opt for our solutions, select others with proven backtesting, or even create your own custom tool with your unique entry points, the key is to make backtesting a central part of your trading approach. The success of your trading career may very well depend on it.



Thank you for your time, and don't forget to backtest your strategy!


Best,

Trading Paradise Team



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